The National Hurricane Center announced June 16 that a low-pressure weather disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean moving toward the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean has only a 20 percent chance of turning into a tropical storm or hurricane and that conditions over the next two days should prevent it from strengthening to this level. The National Hurricane Center has predicted an 85 percent chance of above-average tropical cyclone activity in the 2010 hurricane season, which began June 1. In addition to all the usual risks, this year hurricanes could derail efforts to contain the ongoing oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico.

The Gulf of Mexico is of great strategic importance to the United States, as it serves as the nexus between the Mississippi River system — a region of vast agricultural and industrial output — and global seaborne trade. The Gulf area is also a crucial, though declining, location for domestic energy production and refining. It produces about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, or roughly one-third of total domestic production and one-tenth of the 17 million bpd of total U.S. oil consumption. It also hosts nearly half the country’s petroleum-refining capacity, with refineries in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama receiving domestic- and foreign-produced oil into refineries with a total operating capacity of 8.4 million bpd.

Storms during hurricane season threaten this activity. High winds and waves, tidal surges and subsea waves have the potential to disrupt shipping lanes, offshore energy production, undersea pipelines carrying oil and natural gas, and refineries and port activity. In worst-case scenarios — as with hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 — all Gulf oil and natural gas production was temporarily taken offline, along with 4.7 million bpd of refining. Adding in the nearly 5 million people forced to evacuate, and these storms, especially Katrina, created social and political disturbances, particularly in New Orleans. Ultimately, they sapped considerable political support from the Bush administration.

Only one major hurricane — Hurricane Ike — has slammed into the Gulf coast since 2005, though some storms have appeared capable of it. The threat of hurricane formation in 2010 is thought to be higher than the year before because of factors relating to a climatic phenomenon called the Southern Oscillation, which is divided into two phases: El Nino and La Nina. During El Nino, vertical wind shear greatly increases throughout the Atlantic basin, which decreases the chances for the development of tropical storms and hurricanes (since among other things, they require low vertical wind shear). During La Nina, the vertical wind shear is virtually nonexistent, making the climate in the ocean basin quite conducive to the development of hurricanes. The most recent El Nino phase has just concluded, and La Nina — expected to last from June to August — is now in effect. This transition factored into the National Hurricane Center’s forecast of an 85 percent chance of having above-average tropical cyclone activity in the 2010 season (as compared to 25 percent the previous year during El Nino).

The oil slick from the leak has expanded across the gulf since late April. The slick now covers large swaths offshore of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. In the past, major hurricanes have caused fierce winds and tidal surges that drenched anywhere from 20-40 miles of land with seawater — seawater that would be contaminated with a thin slick of oil this season. Authorities readily admit the situation is unprecedented. Depending on which side of the slick the storm passes over, it could have a greater or lesser effect on the oil drift. Hurricanes spin counter clockwise, so if the storm passes west of the oil slick it could push the oil toward the coast and if to the east it could push it out to sea. If the storm scores a direct hit on the oil slick, the surge could maximize the amount of oil-contaminated water that pours into the coastline. In short, there is a great deal of uncertainty. Several scenarios could see a multitude of problems for those onshore, to say nothing of the even stronger political backlash they would spark.

As mentioned, while the gulf is important to U.S. domestic energy production, its importance has been declining. Output mostly has fallen since 2003, worsened by the aforementioned hurricanes, which took years to recover from. The BP oil spill itself threatens to create such a heavy political and regulatory cost for offshore drilling, especially deepwater offshore (highlighted by U.S. President Barack Obama’s call for tougher legislation during his June 15 speech on the subject, evidence of the already strong political backlash on the subject), that the region’s energy relevance will be under even greater pressure. The full ramifications for the industry will not be known until long after the leak stops.

One potentially positive note is that about 96 percent of major hurricanes occur in the peak period between late August and early October, and BP hopes to have completed the drilling of two relief wells to gather up the oil by that time (effectively stopping the leak). But while the relief wells have a high chance of succeeding once they reach their target, they are not guaranteed to do so immediately, and months could pass as drillers redirect their aim to get directly at the existing well and oil flow. This period would overlap with peak hurricane season.

The question of what happens if the relief wells do not solve the problem is creating headaches behind closed doors in the U.S. government. The Gulf of Mexico has already hurt Obama, distracting him from dealing with urgent foreign policy matters, including military engagements and withdrawals in the Middle East and the ongoing challenges of a troubled economic recovery. A hurricane would only make matters worse.