The Opposing Interests of the U.K. and Germany

 

The Opposing Interests of the U.K. and Germany

QUEEN ELIZABETH II GRANTED BRITISH PRIME MINISTER Gordon Brown’s request to dissolve the Parliament on Tuesday, confirming that May 6 would indeed be a general election day in the United Kingdom, as has long been suspected. The ruling Labour Party — in power since Tony Blair’s landmark 1997 election — now faces a stiff challenge from the opposition Conservative Party in an electoral showdown with one central focus: the economy. The U.K. is facing a nearly 12 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) budget deficit, and a general government debt of nearly 90 percent of GDP — numbers that approach levels of the sovereign debt crisis going on across the Mediterranean. The combination of the dire domestic economic crisis which will consume whichever government emerges from the elections, as well the possible domestic political gridlock if there is no clear winner — the dreaded “hung parliament” scenario — means that the U.K. is likely going to continue to be consumed internally in the short term.

London’s inward focus comes at a time when Germany is acting again as a “normal” country, at least according to German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who used that very phrase in a recent interview. Not only is Germany looking out for its own interests, but also doing so under the relatively firm leadership of Chancellor Angela Merkel, a first on both counts for post-WWI Germany.

A united and politically consolidated Germany has diametrically opposed interests vis-à-vis Europe from the U.K. The British posture towards Europe has historically been one of divide and conquer, or at least divide-and-keep-on-a-short-leash. London’s strategy has oscillated from directly intervening militarily, to preventing the European continent from coalescing into a whole to actively participating in unification efforts to assure that they remain only surface deep. This strategy stems from U.K.’s geography as an island, which gives it extraordinary security (by European standards), but means that it has to prevent at all costs a strong continental Europe, unified and ready to challenge London militarily and economically. The U.K.’s participation in the European Union, therefore, has always stressed individual member state sovereignty and enlargement of the EU to prevent integration that would be too deep for London’s tastes.

Germany, on the other hand, is situated in the middle of the continent, which leaves it relatively defenseless. For this reason it has always stressed the need for Berlin to establish an alliance structure — or outright domination — of a large portion of the continent to prevent the likelihood of a two-front military engagement. In the modern context, Germany’s need for security — which still exists — is further augmented by its need for markets for its export-led economy. As such, today’s “normal” Germany prefers a united continent, as long as Germany gets to be the leader, as this benefits its security and economic policy.

From the German perspective, the EU is a worthy project as long as it allows Berlin to project its economic power on the continent while situating itself in the middle of an alliance that caters to its security needs. From the British perspective, the EU is a worthy project because it gives London access that it can use to subvert exactly the kind of continental-wide domination that Berlin has plotted many times.

The coming elections in the U.K. and their results, however, could very well consume London, giving Germany the opportunity to use the aftermath of the Greek debt crisis to its advantage.