The Failed Times Square Attack
The Failed Times Square Attack
It appears that the failed bombing attempt in Times Square on May 1 was the work of an unskilled attacker or group of attackers who had intended to cause mass casualties, but lacked the skills to conduct an effective attack.
This incident bears several similarities to the attacks in London on June 29, 2007, when two failed vehicle bombs were placed in central London entertainment districts during the evening in an attempt to cause mass casualties. Like the Times Square device, the London devices also contained propane tanks and cans of gasoline with a low explosive initiator charge — though the New York device reportedly used a timer instead of a cell phone to activate the device.
Although the authorities have released no information about potential suspects, the similarity in the method of attack and target set lead us believe that the Times Square device could also have been connected to a small grassroots cell (like London) or even a lone wolf jihadist attacker, and whoever conducted the attempted bombing appears to have closely followed the London attack blueprint.
Someone purporting to represent the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has claimed responsibility for the failed attack in a statement posted to the Internet, but the TTP are a highly professional organization and have a long history of building functional and effective improvised explosive devices. The person who constructed the Times Square device was clearly not a professional, and therefore was not likely dispatched by the TTP to conduct the attack. Additionally, the TTP have taken credit for other attacks in the past that they clearly did not conduct, such as the April 3, 2009, shooting at an immigration center in Binghamton, New York, which was conducted by a mentally disturbed Vietnamese immigrant. If the TTP were involved in any way with the failed Times Square attack, the involvement was likely tangential — such as providing training to a grassroots jihadist who then returned to the United States and attempted the attack, or perhaps even just communicating with the attacker over the Internet.
If this failed attack was conducted by grassroots jihadists or a lone wolf, it is likely that the attackers will attempt a follow-on attack unless they are found and apprehended. With the attackers being inexperienced, they probably left a lot of physical evidence in the vehicle recovered by police on May 1, and could be tracked quickly. Because of this, any follow-on attacks could come rapidly, like the June 30, 2007, attack against the airport in Glasgow, Scotland, conducted by the men responsible for the failed June 29 London attacks.
Therefore, we need to be watching the open source information flow and talking to our contacts for signs of a pending arrest or indications of a possible follow-on attack. Such an attack could involve another bombing attempt, or could be a simple attack using firearms or other readily available weapons. Also, like the Glasgow attack, a follow-on attack could be a suicide mission.
